European Olive Oil Market Report - December 2024
The Spanish olive oil mills are filling up with fresh olive oil as the harvest reaches its peak. This week, AICA data offers a clearer picture of how the season is progressing in Spain during December.
Weather Conditions
In December, northern Spain experienced significant rainfall, contrasting sharply with Andalucía, the country’s primary olive-growing region, where no significant volume of rain fell. Water reservoirs in Andalucía remained unchanged at 34.55%.
Although winter has only just begun, the lack of rainfall is already a concern. This trend of delayed winter precipitation, often shifting to early spring in recent years, underscores the growing unpredictability of weather patterns affecting olive cultivation.
The current state of water reservoirs in Spain is showcased in detail in the following graph:
Outputs
December was a month where the harvesting activity was very intense. More specifically, during this month, 583.281 tons of olive oil were produced withtotal production stocks for the 2024-25 crop reaching 883.589 tons. Currently, packers are holding 135.560 tons, while farmers retain 683.854 tons.
Outputs are not recovering with this months volume reaching almost 90.000 tons at 88.052 tons. Compated to past month there was a 16.75% increase.
Our View
Spain's market shows resilience, with offers remaining firm and unwilling to drop below €4.50 per kilogram. Most of the country’s olive oil stocks are concentrated in the province of Jaén, a factor that could trigger sharp market shifts depending on seasonal and climatic conditions.
December’s olive oil production was strong; similar results are expected for January. If production aligns with the Junta de Andalucía's forecasts, the key variable will be the weather, particularly winter rainfall. Production outputs have remained consistent with previous months, and a slight increase is anticipated in January. However, experts agree that output levels are unlikely to return to those seen two years ago this season. Despite a notable decrease in prices, consumer demand has not yet shown signs of recovery.
Buyers, meanwhile, are taking a cautious approach. With no urgency to make purchases, they continue to stall, contributing to the uncertainty in the market.
The Italian olive oil market remains robust, with prices still holding above €9,00 per kilogram.
In Greece, the market remains steady, driven by limited supply and persistently high prices. Freshly produced olive oil is of exceptional quality, which has led to a scarcity of other categories, such as virgin olive oil. However, overall supply remains constrained, as producers prefer to keep their stocks stored at home or in olive oil mills, waiting for higher prices that meet their expectations.
Greek prices are exceeding Spanish offers, currently above €5/kg. As a result, many Italian buyers are opting to purchase directly from Spain. Within Greece, the market is seeing some activity, with local buyers favoring domestic offers over imports.
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