Discovering the evolution of olive oil’s value over the past 13 years, with prices tripling due to growing demand, market dynamics, and climate change challenges.
In recent years, olive oil production in the Mediterranean has faced significant challenges due to climate change. Declining production volumes, coupled with steady demand, have disrupted the market. As consumers increasingly seek healthy and natural ingredients, olive oil has grown in popularity, even in regions where other fats and vegetable oils are traditionally preferred, such as in Northern Europe.
Spain, the world's largest producer and exporter of olive oil, has been deeply affected. Production challenges have led to soaring prices, nearly tripling during the most challenging crop seasons compared to more favorable years. Remarkably, despite these price hikes, consumer demand has remained strong.
Pricing trends reveal the extent of the market shift. According to European Commission data, during the 2023/24 crop year, the price for extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) reached an unprecedented 9.02 €/kg, compared to a low of 1.77 €/kg in 2011/12—a staggering increase of over 400%.
Can we prevent future price surges?
The current landscape of the food sector presents fluctuation in pricing caused by limited volumes of several goods due to climate change. To balance demand and offer prices, they are increasing, notably creating challenging conditions for global trade. Specifically, the olive oil market remains intense and unpredictable, making price forecasting uncertain. While prices typically decline during peak production periods, significant drops have already been observed. For example, good-quality Spanish EVOO is now priced at around 4.5 €/kg with a starting point of the new crop at 7,40€/kg. However, expectations remain cautious, as the rapid effects of climate change, including prolonged heat and heavy rains during the harvesting period, are reshaping the landscape.
Adapting to a new reality
The olive oil industry must adapt to the growing impact of climate change, including prolonged heatwaves that disproportionately affect olive-producing regions. Collaboration across the sector is essential to navigate these challenges. Farmers need access to advanced techniques and knowledge to boost productivity and profitability. Such tools are the Library and Wikifarmer Academy, which have over 2000 articles and online courses. We provide information that could benefit farmers during uncertain periods. Governments and other institutions also need to take action by offering and supporting innovative solutions for sustainable production.
The supply chain stakeholders must collaborate to stabilize prices and guarantee transparency for producers and consumers. By empowering stakeholders with equitable opportunities, we strive to create a more resilient and sustainable future for the olive oil industry. At Wikifarmer, we seek to promote transparency in the olive oil trade, promoting a market with fairer prices that benefit the industry's interested parties and helping the sector mitigate the effects of climate change.