Weekly Olive Oil Market Updates
The European olive oil market is currently exhibiting stability in pricing and trading. As we approach the new harvest, stakeholders are preparing but are not yet engaging in significant transaction volumes. Our experts, alongside the Wikifarmer Marketplace, have provided valuable insights into market trends and pricing data from Union of Olive Oil-Producing Municipalities of Crete, PoolRed, and Ismea Mercati.
The situation in Spain is still challenging, with limited quantities of olive oil available. Any potential transactions could create market tensions, leading to rising prices. While prices are expected to eventually decline, the exact timing remains uncertain. In Andalusia, the primary olive oil-producing region, there is a pressing need for rainfall to boost olive yields. A lack of rain could intensify tensions between producers and buyers, as it directly impacts production volumes. Significant increases in yields are anticipated from mid-November to December. It is likely that market dynamics will shift when production from all key countries (Spain, Italy, Tunisia, and Greece) aligns by the end of November.
Southern Italy, home to over 50% of the country’s olive groves, has been impacted by drought, raising concerns about national olive oil production. However, conditions vary across regions, resulting in mixed yield projections. Once producers have a more accurate assessment of the harvest, a clearer picture of this year’s olive oil output is expected by December.
In Greece, the upcoming season is expected to produce high-quality oil, thanks to recent rainfall in the region. However, overall yields are not projected to rise dramatically due to the stress that olive trees endured during the prolonged summer heatwave. Meanwhile, Tunisia is optimistic about a good crop this year, as recent rains in the cultivating regions are expected to enhance olive oil yields.
Tunisian and Andalusian olive oil exports are surging, reflecting a growing global demand for this premium product. From November 2023 to August 2024, Tunisia's olive oil exports reached €1.414 billion, a 61.7% increase, with Spain, Italy, and the U.S. as top buyers. Organic olive oil exports were dominated by Italy, Spain, and France. Despite the challenges posed by drought in Mediterranean countries, Tunisia produced 194,000 tons of olive oil, with extra virgin olive oil making up 89% of exports.
Meanwhile, Andalusia saw exceptional export growth in the first seven months of 2024, with olive oil driving a 63.1% increase, hitting a record €2.811 billion. This performance solidified olive oil as Andalusia's top export, accounting for 11.4% of the region's total exports. Diversification in export markets, such as Belgium (up 45%) and China (up 34%), contributed to this success. Seville led Andalusian exports with €6.138 billion, propelled by olive oil and the aeronautical sector.
Both Tunisia and Andalusia are at the forefront of a dynamic olive oil market, with rising global prices and strong demand driving remarkable export growth globally.
Changing of the legislative landscape in olive oil production
In the coming months, the European Union and Spain are introducing important legislative changes that will significantly impact the olive oil sector, especially in terms of sustainability, food safety, and product transparency. At the EU level, key initiatives such as the Regulatory Framework for a Sustainable Food System are part of the European Green Deal and aim to push for more environmentally friendly production practices. Additionally, stricter regulations around food contact materials, including packaging and new labeling requirements focused on animal welfare and alcoholic beverages, will directly affect how olive oil producers package and communicate their products. These changes highlight the need for stakeholders to stay informed and ensure compliance to maintain competitiveness and consumer trust.
In Spain, new regulations that specifically impact olive oil producers are also pending. The New Quality Standard for Vegetable Oils aims to modernize current regulations, making the sector more competitive and aligned with EU-wide food safety standards. Additionally, the Law on the Prevention of Food Loss and Waste, which is expected to be approved soon, will play a key role in addressing food waste, further promoting sustainability in the sector. Companies in the olive oil industry must proactively prepare for these legislative shifts, which not only respond to regulatory changes but also to growing consumer demand for sustainability and food safety.