Weekly Olive Oil Market Updates
The European olive oil market is currently experiencing significant volatility, driven by weather disruptions and production challenges that are reshaping supply dynamics in major producing countries. Spain, the leading olive oil producer globally, is at the forefront of these changes, as erratic weather patterns affect both the quality and quantity of this season’s harvest. These conditions not only impact local operators but also influence global pricing trends and market behavior in key regions such as Italy, Tunisia, and Greece. To provide valuable insights for bulk olive oil B2B buyers, we have analyzed transaction data from Wikifarmer and consulted our team of experts. Additionally, we have utilized our "Price Insights" tool to track pricing trends effectively.
Recently, AICA released new data that highlights market developments in Spain. Olive oil production remains strong and aligns with campaign forecasts. However, uncertainty looms due to recent disruptions in key oil-producing regions. Seville has recorded heavy rainfall, Cordoba has seen moderate precipitation, and Jaén has experienced lighter amounts. Weather forecasts indicate that more substantial rainfall is expected in these areas soon.
As a result, market operators are taking a cautious approach, trying to gauge future trends. Packers are limiting purchases to essential needs, while producers are pushing for prices they deem reasonable. The quality of this year’s Spanish harvest is a concern, primarily due to adverse weather conditions. Additionally, the higher-quality oil produced earlier in the campaign has mostly been sold, leading to a noticeable price disparity. Lower-end extra virgin olive oil is priced at €4.10–€4.20/kg ex-works, while premium-quality oil can reach up to €5/kg ex-works.
Monitoring monthly production outputs is crucial. Currently, production levels lack the strength needed for significant recovery, which will be vital for understanding carryovers into the next campaign.
In Italy, olive oil prices remain above €9/kg, showing no signs of decline. This stability is attributed to a weak harvest, leaving producers confident that supplies will remain limited until the next campaign. Buyers are also hesitant to purchase Spanish olive oil this week due to ongoing rainfall. In Tunisia, the campaign appears shorter than expected, likely capped at 300,000 tonnes. Farmers are dissatisfied with current price levels and are advocating for market recovery.
A similar situation exists in Greece, where producers are reluctant to sell. However, the Greek olive oil sector is highly responsive to developments in the Spanish market. While some producers hope for a repeat of last year’s price increases, this scenario seems unlikely given the current market conditions.
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