Weekly Olive Oil Market Updates
The European olive oil market is experiencing a downward trend, coupled with significant rainfall in Spain. Our commercial team and online activity at Wikifarmer have provided valuable insights into this week's developments in demand and pricing, along with our tool, "Price Insights."
Spanish olive oil-producing regions continue to experience significant rainfall, which is expected to drive prices further down. Many producers have informed our experts that this year’s production will be high, and the ongoing rainfall will help replenish water reservoirs.
A substantial volume of olive oil remains to be produced, with the harvest continuing until late February or early March. Buyers are adopting a cautious approach, purchasing only to replenish their stocks. Next week, AICA data is expected to be published, providing a more comprehensive outlook on market trends and the impact of heavy rainfall on this year’s crop.
In Italy, the market remains above €9/kg, indicating stability. However, purchases are limited as continuous rainfall in Spain has led Italian buyers to anticipate further price declines, prompting them to wait for better deals in the coming weeks.
In Greece, prices have started to decline, following the trend of the Spanish market. Price variations depend on quality and region. In the Peloponnese, quality is reported to be very high. However, many producers are holding onto their stocks, anticipating that buyers will turn to Greece for their purchases with the Spanish and Italian markets disrupted by weather conditions.
Global olive oil market rebounds as demand shifts beyond the EU
The 2024/2025 olive oil campaign is set for a strong recovery, with global consumption expected to rise 10% to 3.06 million tonnes, according to the International Olive Council (IOC). This follows a 2.6% decline in 2023/2024, driven by high prices and lower production. The anticipated rebound signals renewed demand, not only in traditional markets like the EU and the U.S. but also in emerging regions.
The European Union remains the largest consumer, but its global share has fallen from 70% in 2004/2005 to 45% today. Meanwhile, non-EU markets are expanding, reflecting a shift in dietary preferences and a growing awareness of olive oil’s health benefits.
Exports outside the EU saw a 1.9% price increase in November 2024 despite a 4.4% drop from the previous month. However, global imports fell by 6% between October and November, indicating potential demand slowdowns in key markets.
As olive oil markets stabilize, shifting consumer preferences and evolving trade patterns will shape the sector’s outlook in the coming months.
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