Weekly Olive Oil Market Updates
Last week, the release of AICA data drew close attention from the market as stakeholders analyzed trends that could shape the coming weeks. Leveraging insights from our experts and Wikifarmer’s online activity alongside our Price Insights tool, we provide an overview of the latest developments.
In Spain and Italy, buyers expect further price declines. The AICA report suggests that the market may continue its downward trend in the coming months. However, there is no rush to purchase at the moment. While prices are not expected to drop immediately, January’s output exceeded 100,000 tons, largely due to purchases made in December but executed in January. Meanwhile, current rainfall is essential for next season’s crop, ensuring sufficient irrigation through the summer and offering a more optimistic outlook for future yields.
In Greece, prices have begun to decline but are showing signs of stabilizing following the AICA data release. The olive harvest is expected to conclude this month, and market reactions will be closely monitored. Many producers remain hopeful that prices could rebound in the near future. Tunisia, meanwhile, has reported a strong harvest, which could introduce further market turbulence due to increased competition.
Italy’s olive oil market: stocks up monthly, down yearly
Italy’s Frantoio Report for January 2025 presents mixed results. As of January 31, olive oil stocks reached 214,329 tons, reflecting a 7.4% increase compared to the previous month but a 20.5% decline year-over-year. Extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) makes up 72.6% of total stocks, with 63.2% of that being of Italian origin. Southern Italy holds the largest share of stocks (53.9%), with Puglia (34.8%) and Calabria (11%) playing key roles. Meanwhile, organic EVOO stocks have dropped significantly (-31.6% YoY), now accounting for 17.8% of total EVOO storage.
The annual decline in stock levels is mainly due to lower EVOO (-23.5%), lampante olive oil (-19.4%), and refined olive oil (-29.0%) supplies. Notably, Italian-origin EVOO and extra-EU EVOO stocks are down 35.5% and 28.3%, respectively, compared to January 2024. However, compared to December, total stocks have grown, largely driven by increased EU imports (+12,351 tons), boosting EVOO reserves by 6.3%. This trend suggests a shifting supply dynamic, with lower domestic production and increasing reliance on imports to stabilize the market.
Powerful solutions for you