Olive Oil Market Digest w48

Weekly Olive Oil Market Updates

The recent rainfall across the main olive oil-producing countries in the Mediterranean region has raised hopes among stakeholders for a better crop this year. As the peak of the harvesting season approaches, olive oil production volumes are increasing, and prices have shown signs of stabilizing. For our weekly analysis we have gathered data from Wikifarmer’s activity, and trusted sources as Union of Olive Oil-Producing Municipalities of Crete, PoolRed, and Ismea Mercat.

Market Updates in Europe

Last month, in Spain, the AICA data reported that new crop production remains low, while domestic trade and export demand exceed 80,000 tons. Recent rainfall has delayed the harvest, leading to lower yields in some areas. However, significant harvest volumes are expected in November and December, traditionally the peak months of the season.

Jaén is producing higher volumes of good-quality olive oil, with ⅓ of the olive mills already producing early olive oil. Extra virgin olive oil prices rose slightly to €5.21/kg, and lampante oil was €4.72/kg. The market in Spain appears to have halted its previous downward trend, with prices beginning to rebound.

Portugal's olive oil production is currently facing challenges due to olive anthracnose, also known as “soapy olives” (Colletotrichum gloeosporioides). Prolonged humidity caused by heavy rainfall has created favorable conditions for the spread of this disease, significantly affecting both yield and quality. Oils impacted by anthracnose display high acidity and an orange hue, which has resulted in lower market prices and an increased supply of lampante oil.

In Italy, olive oil prices have declined significantly in recent weeks, even as stocks dropped to 104,740 tons—a 26.3% decrease compared to last year. However, prices have recently surged to €9/kg, driven by uncertainty surrounding new crop yields and reduced reserves from the previous campaign. With harvesting expected to conclude in the coming month, the market remains volatile, as conflicting reports from domestic and international sources add to the confusion. Many markets have yet to provide firm quotations for new production.

In Greece, a lack of early rainfall initially delayed harvesting, but recent rains have boosted oil yields and accelerated harvesting activities. As production ramps up across the country, prices, which had been falling, are now stabilizing. The market is anticipated to reach equilibrium in December as harvesting progresses.

Sterol limits and the future of premium olive oils

The current legislation on total sterols in extra virgin olive oil (EVOO), which sets the legal limit at 1000 mg/kg, significantly impacts the market, particularly in relation to the classification and commercialization of oils. According to research, this limit, established over 30 years ago, has become unreliable due to changes in oil production practices, such as the rise of monovarietal oils and the effects of climate change.

Monovarietal EVOOs, especially from specific cultivars like Coratina and Nocellara del Belice, often fall below the 1000 mg/kg threshold due to their naturally lower sterol content, which can result in these oils being classified as non-compliant and downgraded to generic vegetable oil. Furthermore, climate conditions, particularly rising temperatures, and early harvest practices, which are aimed at improving the sensory and health quality of oils, may further reduce sterol concentrations.

The legal limit for total sterols, which has not been updated despite changes in olive oil composition and farming practices, creates a paradox where high-quality oils, especially those from specific cultivars or harvested early, may fail to meet the purity requirements. It is crucial for regulations to follow and be updated tactically since climate change and technology are significantly involved in food production.

The Mediterranean olive oil market is stabilizing following recent rains, though challenges like olive anthracnose and outdated sterol regulations persist. Adapting standards to align with modern practices and climate realities is essential to support producers and preserve the quality of premium olive oils. Balancing tradition with innovation will be key to ensuring a sustainable future for the sector.

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