Olive Oil Market Digest w6

Weekly Olive Oil Market Updates

Price Updates

The latest data from olive oil transactions on the Wikifarmer Marketplace, combined with the most recent data from our trusted sources for Greece (Union of Olive Oil-Producing Municipalities of Crete), Italy (Ismea Mercati), and Spain (PoolRed), form the following image on the movement in mean prices in the olive oil market:

In Greece, the price of EVOO moved slightly higher than last week's numbers but still below the €9.00 threshold. Movements in the country's markets were diverse and sometimes conflicting. A very short-term effect could be noted due to the rapid change of the weather from cold temperatures and rainfall to springtime conditions, temporarily shifting the next crop's volume expectations for some operators. As for the other categories of olive oil, the features of the negative trend that has lately been forming are still evident.  

Regarding Italy, everything has stayed the same in supply and demand fundamentals, and neither side is taking the lead in transforming the existing equilibrium.

As for Spain, the slowdown that began last week ahead of the publication of this season's production output numbers endures. Regional variations exist, but overall movements continue in last week's direction.

Forecast on the EU’s Olive Oil Ending Stocks

The most up-to-date version of EUROSTAT's olive oil dashboard contains a new forecast on the total production output and the other parameters affecting the availability of olive oil in the EU.

We have already discussed that 2024 is the third in a row of years in which olive oil production plummeted due to prolonged heatwaves, limited precipitation, and natural disasters. After the reduction in total output by about 38.73% in the 2022/23 season, the current one was off of the worst start in olive oil availability; starting stocks were made of just 406 thousand tonnes, or 39.49% lower than last season. The developments that ensued, with unpredictable changes in weather conditions, operator behavior, and geopolitical threats and obstacles to trade, culminated in a rather dismal view regarding the season's ending stocks.

The number is forecasted to stand at around 257 thousand tonnes, being affected not only by lower production and imports but also the fact that consumption did not falter as much as one would expect; here we witness the validation of our observations on the signs of robustness in consumer demand (and subsequently B2B demand) for the product in front of the rising prices, even though regional variations have held.
As the weather continuously exhibits erratic behavior and consumer demand has stabilized, the good performance of olive oil exports by the major producing countries in the EU reflects the significant dependence of the region's markets on imports from third countries. The latter, however, as we saw in the example of Turkey, seem reluctant to open their olive oil markets to the rest of the world in favor of the stability of their domestic markets and the satisfaction of their consumers' needs.

All in all, the given circumstances leave us no space to believe that the 2024/25 season will be one of lower uncertainty unless the situation in all of the factors above somehow "tunes" back to normal. Developments that instill some hope under these circumstances seem like those coming from Portugal; the high prices in the current season prompted producers to adopt more modern olive-production techniques and to establish intensive olive groves. Also, the European Commission developed a new tool for detecting funding opportunities, combining options offered to farmers as part of multiple EU funds. However, the suboptimal funding levels available from the banking system to producers and B2B buyers of agricultural products hinder the sector's rehabilitation, and we will soon analyze its characteristics in an upcoming special edition.

Wikifarmer negotiates with several suppliers to secure a steady supply of Olive oil at reasonable prices. Our team can help you with price negotiation, pay with credit terms, and arrange logistics and transportation. We also implement strict Quality Assurance procedures, making sure that producers provide us with all certificates that prove their claims about their products, and that all relevant analyses take place. 

Our contribution is not constrained just to the facilitation of value optimization for the various market players. We also invest a lot in making sure that our highly-valued partners, either from the supply or from the demand side, keep up with the latest developments in their fields.

This is why we have created Wikifarmer Academy, in order to offer affordable educational courses to all. The Wikifarmer Academy is an online school that aims to provide complete educational courses that will empower you and help you cultivate more efficiently and sustainably. In case you are interested in learning more, check our new course "Wikifarmer Expert in Sustainable Olive Oil Production, Quality, and Economics" here.