Olive oil Market Report: December 2023

Monthly data and forecasts for the Olive oil market

Main Market Figures

The main 3 elements we consider to set up our monthly market reports are the ones that have the most relevant influence on the raw material price evolution within the incoming months: Monthly harvested production, monthly global consumption in Spain (Domestic + Exports) and the weather conditions. Those variables will tend to determine the final olive oil availability and thus the potential price evolutions. 
 
For December 2023, we consider the recently published November 2023 data:

Harvest 
The monthly production volumes for November reached the level of 220,929 tons. This makes November's crops much more fruitful than expected, with last season's numbers being at 167,095 tons. The total crop for 2023/24 hit 258,000 tons on 30th November, showing a significant increase from the 190,000 tons of 2022/23. This would be recovering the expectations of a crop that reaches 750.000 or even 800.000 tons by the end of the season. 
 
Consumption
The total consumption of Spanish olive oil, both from domestic consumers as well as from foreign demand (i.e., through exports), stood at 67,500 tons. 

The average consumption at this point yields a number below 70.000 tons vs the 121.790 Tons registered in 2022. Whether the availability of olive oil will be enough or not to cover global demand will depend on next month's consumption figures. 

As a result of this situation, prices might rise even more during the next 6-8 weeks, reaching levels in the region of €9,00 or €9,50 for EVOO and close to 8,00 for refined olive oil. 

Weather Conditions

November rainfall,  (as well as in September-October) has improved the reservoir situation, which was especially severe in places like  Murcia and Andalucía. Lack of rainfall was one of the major factors in this season's poor yield.

However, rains are still at levels below those of 20 22 and the 10-year average. Another 400 liters per square meter is needed to resolve the drought fully. Overall, though, the irrigation expectations for summer 2024 have slightly improved. 

Below, we showcase the condition of water reservoirs in the various regions; at the beginning of the season, those in the south had hit levels that banned olive oil irrigation.

Wikifarmer negotiates with several suppliers to secure a steady supply of Olive oil at reasonable prices. Our team can help you with price negotiation, pay with credit terms, and arrange logistics and transportation. We also implement strict Quality Assurance procedures, making sure that producers provide us with all certificates that prove their claims about their products, and that all relevant analyses take place.